June 21, 2024
A new poll released Tuesday by Adam Frisch's congressional campaign shows the former Aspen city councilman narrowly leading U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in one of the most closely watched House races.

A new poll released Tuesday by Adam Frisch’s congressional campaign shows the former Aspen city councilman narrowly leading U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in one of the most closely watched House races in the country — the first time the Democrat has held an edge over his GOP nemesis.

The poll, conducted this month by Keating Research among 801 3rd Congressional District residents likely to vote next year, shows Frisch with a 50% to 48% lead. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%, president and founder Chris Keating conceded that the results signify, for all intents and purposes, a tie.

But the trajectory for Frisch, Keating said, is going the right way. In an October 2022 poll the firm conducted on last November’s race, it was Boebert who held the 2% lead. She ended up defeating Frisch by fewer than 600 votes — a margin so thin it triggered an automatic recount.

“So we’re seeing a steady improvement in Adam’s numbers,” Keating said at a Tuesday morning press conference to announce the results of the poll.

He made special note of Frisch’s big lead over the second-term congresswoman among unaffiliated voters — 57% to 40% — and among Latino voters — 65% to 33% — as key to his prospects at the ballot box in November 2024.

Frisch’s campaign commissioned and paid for the poll, which provides a snapshot of where voters are a little more than 14 months ahead of the election. In a statement released Tuesday, Frisch said the poll results show that “voters in this district are tired of Boebert’s extremism and want a representative who delivers common sense solutions for their families, their businesses and their communities.”

Boebert’s campaign manager, Drew Sexton, said Frisch’s path ahead is anything but settled.

“For the poll to have any relevance Aspen Adam needs to secure the Democrat nomination, which he only won by a couple hundred votes last time,” said Sexton, referring to Frisch’s razor-thin victory over Sol Sandoval in the 2022 primary. “This primary he’ll have to explain whether he’s lying to liberals or lying to conservatives about his policies. So far, Adam has proven he’s lying to both.”

Frisch faces four challengers in the Democratic primary, which will take place June 25. The most prominent among them is Grand Junction Mayor Anna Stout, who announced a run for the seat last month. The other Democrats in the contest are Debby Burnett, David Karpas and Adam Withrow. 

Boebert faces two opponents in next year’s GOP primary — Russ Andrews and Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney who jumped into the race last week.

Keating said one of the more revealing elements in the poll is Frisch’s 17% lead over Boebert among those who don’t subscribe to a political party, characterizing it as “a substantial difference and that’s what is driving his lead.”

Unaffiliated voters account for nearly 210,000 registered voters in the sprawling and largely rural district that hugs the Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico state lines. Republicans are nearly 150,000 strong while Democrats have just 114,000 registered voters in the district, according to state election data.

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The other telling result from the poll, according to Keating vice president Jake Martin, is the divergent favorability ratings for each candidate. Frisch has a plus 8% favorability rating among respondents — 34% favorable to 26% unfavorable — while Boebert is “underwater” with a 42% favorable impression among voters and 53% unfavorable.

That contrasts with a 60% unfavorable view of President Biden in the 3rd Congressional District and a 53% unfavorable view of former President Donald Trump.

The poll results come a month after fundraising numbers showed Frisch outraising Boebert for the second quarter in a row. He now has a million more dollars in his war chest than Boebert has.

“I think (Frisch) is in a pretty strong spot,” Martin said.